The UK's Met Office has released the results of a study which used a supercomputer to model the increased risk of unusually heavy rainfall for the UK.
Alarmingly, the research suggests that there is a high risk of record-breaking rainfall in the coming decade, with a 34% chance of an extreme weather event happening in a part of England and/ or Wales each year. The computer modelling also concluded that any of these extreme weather events could be up to 30% worse than any previously recorded in a given area.
Whilst the Met Office is not attributing the increased risk levels to climate change, the study was carried out using existing climate data, which they acknowledge is already subject to climate change.
This year has been unusually dry so far, but the Met Office is not expecting this state of affairs to continue. There is a general trend towards wetter winters, with heavier rainfall bringing more floods and breaking more records. It's important that we know about this now, so that we can be better prepared for flooding by investing more in flood defences.
Photo by Joe.